Looks like talks are getting serious about this. Nobody from the republican party also wants to step up and run unless they have Trumps blessing. I think he may have a shot, but the issue is he has lost his platform (Twitter) to communicate with his supporters. Seems like there is a lot of hate for Biden right now.
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Comments (27)
I don't think Trump can win. He has a very energetic and passionate voter base, but his voter base is pretty small and while he has the influence to destroy a Republican candidacy by not blessing the candidate, I don't think he himself can gain the support of the large moderate base as well as other candidates. If anything, I think the 2020 election showed how turned off the moderate base was by Trump rather than Biden's likeability. That being said, there's no doubt Trump has reshaped part of the American electorate like no other and the Republicans will need to find a candidate who can do the fine dance between gaining the moderate vote and energizing Trump's base.
Agreed. If anything, I think Trump is a liability to the Republican Party for the 2024 elections. Although Trump can energize his base, Trump's polarizing nature would certainly energize some moderate and many left-leaning voters to come out to vote against him. And if Trump is not the Republican Party's candidate, I think his influence, as well as his volatility, can certainly sink the Republican candidate's election chances by either not giving his blessing to the candidate and as a result not energizing his voter base, or if he chooses to run as a third party, thus taking away a large Republican voter base.
I agree with you he can't win. But his base is estimated to be 38%-42% of the country. While he polls at 70% to 85% amongst Republicans guaranteeing him the Republican nomination. He did a lot of things that Republicans love. Just the supreme court is enough to get him a lot of votes. Republicans have been fighting Roe v Wade for 50 years and it might be overturned next year while gun rights cases are being brought to the court by Conservative groups.
To add even though Biden is polling near Trump level support now around 42%(538) I think Biden edges out Trump in a general just because moderates and independents don't want a crazy president.
我确实相信，虽然像Destantis或Rubio这样的共和党候选人很容易竞标。
2017年，特朗普支持一项法案，该法案将使数千万的红色州立po（他的基地）支付其收入的20％。他们仍然投票支持他。这些人启动多少没有限制。
What would Trump even do in 2024? Cut taxes further?
When will they realize that this is not right?
Not sure if it's bugging on my end but half the counties don't appear to be filled in in your first visual.
For the second visual, it's including federal, state,andlocal taxes. Trump can only influence federal taxes, and I'd also wonder how much the growing profession of HNW tax lawyers impacts this visual. Also worth noting that 1950 was a stone's throw away from big govt. FDR who was the closest we've come to actually trying to overthrow democracy.
我也认为这是值得注意的that some people don't want help. They want to be independent and create a life for themselves. Maybe you want to WFH and live in your parent's basement but this isn't the mentality of everyone. "Free Money" comes with increased dependence which gives govt. free reign to ram quality of life to the ground (see Detroit, Baltimore, etc.). Finally, not everyone votes purely for taxes. You see that on this site a lot because everyone here is in very high paying jobs relative to the average. Get outside of thisWSO泡沫，您会发现许多人主要在社会/宗教问题上投票。
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b0b体育app下载If the inflation keeps rising in the long-term, even the most liberals will vote for him.
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this "transitory" inflation a result of spending undertaken by the Trump administration?
Would you be referring to the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the $1 trillion Infrastructure Bill or the currently fiercely debated Social Spending Bill?
Inflation still seems transitory to me once the supply chain bottleneck is resolved.
并非没有他的社交媒体平台。他绝不会获得同样的流行，而没有每天每小时在社交媒体上嘲笑其他政客。
It's unlikely. He won in 2016 because he ran against a candidate who only escaped being the most unpopular candidate in history, because Mr Trump ran. The same way Mr Biden garnered "anti-Trump" votes, Trump got the Clinton haters. His entire Administration was a giant "Fuck You" to anyone and everyone who wasn't on their knees in front of him at all times; it seems nearly inconceivable that there is even a single voter who didn't vote for him in 2020 who would vote for him in 2024. In 2020 he had the advantage of incumbency, which is worth quite a bit.
In short, he's now a known quantity. This is also where his whole "lets overthrow the government" shtick is going to hurt him. If he acted with even a modicum of dignity and decorum on his way out of office, I'd actually argue he might be in decent shape for 2024. It'll be interesting to hear how revelations from that committee impact the electoral map in 2022.
Also, lets be honest - he's a senile man who has spent his whole life eating fast food and drinking soda. He could easily be dead in 3 years; Biden doesn't look so hot himself, and Trump makes him look like a 35 year old with perfect memory.
我认为圣经引用“骄傲使人fall" can summarize the last 6 months or so of Trump's administration. He started from the bottom of the barrel in 2016 and did won the presidency in a huge surprise. He had policy successes in the presidency, but ultimately his pride led him to being unable to even wear a mask at the height of a pandemic, hold rallies indoors, and more importantly not being able to concede in an election which in my opinion has sealed his fate. Let's not forget January 6, of course. At a minimum what happened that day was unprofessional, and arguably criminal as well.
我同意特朗普是一个贫穷的候选人，但拜登迄今为止的总统职位甚至比特朗普的头几年更糟糕。我绝对可以看到人们转身受到通货膨胀，犯罪，供应链问题，汽油价格的伤害，并因拜登的外交政策和边境管理而受到打击。
And I think generally speaking, even though Trump is a poor candidate, if Biden or Harris wins the DNC nomination, Trump may edge out, due to increased support from working class voters. I've head rumors that prominent donors are trying to set up Buttigieg to take the nomination, but given that we see where his priorities are with the allocation of the bipartisan infrastructure bill by focusing on "racist bridges" (a claim that even WaPo has qualms with), it's unclear whether he will have much of an appeal.
Of course the easy solution is to nominate anyone other than Trump and the GOP would have a good shot. Unfortunately, nobody seems brave enough to take out Trump head to head at least atm.
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I agree on the whole... but what were his policy successes? He passed a tax cut which pretty abjectly failed to help anyone except the wealthy and corporate interests. That's about it.
Actually, I'd argue Biden has been farmoresuccessful than Trump. He's just as bad as communicating his successes as Trump was at taking credit for shit he never did.
Afghanistan was a nightmare - but again, few people seem to realize Mr Biden was following through on a Trump-era policy. The Pentagon seems to be of the opinion that the confusion of the evacuation aside (which, again - a major failure by Mr Biden), the Taliban was always going to regain control of the country under the terms of Mr Trump's treaty. That hasn't been well communicated at all.
拜登先生现在在任职的第一年就过去了，比特朗普先生在四人中管理的立法更重要，有影响力和更大的立法。尽管他（或者也许是因为）他并没有比历史上的任何总统都打高尔夫球，但他还是这样做了，他的大部分时间都没有在推文和观看/呼唤有线新闻，也没有将他的政府专注于如何如何处理最有效地抢劫了美国人民。
I guess. Lets see where we end up in three years. Mr Trump shut down the government because he's a giant baby, and was convicted of betraying his oath of office twice, and a whole host of other crimes. Remember when he admitted on live television that he engaged in criminal behavior in order to shut down a possible investigation intoothercriminal behavior he had engaged in? Remember when he sent his private lawyer to trade political favors in return for digging up dirt on his political opponents, bypassing the State Department? Well, the voters didn't seem to care for long.
Biden may not live long enough either - he's reached the heights of his career, he's old, I can see him not running again, actually. Also, again.... Biden is passing/signing legislation that will actually help Americans. Three years from now the impacts of that may actually be felt and the messaging around it may improve.
I don't think this is true. Who are the GOP gonna nominate? Trump took advantage of something conservatives on this board seem reluctant to admit - that conservative/Republican voters in this country don't really care about policy and don't really care to learn about what their politicians are voting for. They're nativist, xenophobic, and care more about "winning" than about improving theirs or anyone else's lives. Which is why so many of them love their healthcare but hate "Obamacare". Trump tapped into this surge of feeling that the GOP (and, to be fair, the Democrats) are a bunch of selfish, globalist elites who don't care about the common person, and he channeled that feeling by directing all that rage and frustration against other people who look and think different, instead of into solving an actual problem. Who is the GOP going to turn to now? A Trump-lite? All the disadvantages without the advantages of the Trump name. A relatively centrist like Mr Youngkin? Please. That's the problem with Trumpism in general - it is, literally, a cult, and the GOP over the last 12 years has clung so tenaciously, and doubled down so consistently, on white frustration and anger that they can longer longer effectively appeal to anyone else. They're tent is one size, and to expand it is to lose the majority of the voters they've cultivated so assiduously.
我的意思是，您如何呼吁（说）西班牙裔宗教保守派，而不承认这个国家可能不是强奸犯和凶手？由于比特朗普更温和的候选人，您将失去他设法利用的所有热情。与像特朗普这样的人，你失去了一些温和派andsome of the Trump diehards. With Trump himself, you have the memory of the fact that he's a treasonous criminal.
The Republicans are going to do everything in their power to keep Trump sidelined, Trump's loud antics might energize his base but they won't pull the moderates back his way. DeSantis looks to be the Republicans best bet and considering all the posturing he has been doing lately my guess is that he'll run in 2024. Biden is unlikely to run again, probably didn't want to run in 2020 but he was the only chance the Democrats had at beating Trump. Moderates gave Trump a chance in 2016 simply because he was different and they were tired of the same old thing, Trump got a little off his rocker while in office so the Moderates essentially said "well we gave him a shot, back to the old guard" and voted for Biden. Assuming it's either Kamala or Biden that runs in 2024 all the Republicans need is a halfway sane candidate and they'll crush the Democrats considering all the infighting within the Democratic party and the considerable distain for the current administration given the polling numbers.
Fuck moderate Republicans
"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn
I think it will be either Trump or DeSantis to win it. This country is sick of Democrats right now.
"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee
Yes
Trump was excellent on the policy front, but was caustic enough to lose to an empty suit, 3x loser, who has been vocally wrong on every foreign policy issue for 50+ years, vowed to destroy the O&G industry, and clearly has dementia...Then turned out to be more of a disaster than anyone could have predicted once in office. Trump's more caustic now than he was in 2020 and may be the only candidate who independents and the few remaining non-retarded Dems would either refuse to vote for him or who would pull the lever for 4 more years of the current clusterfuckery.
Desantis should be the Republican nominee. Aside from the fact that he would beat Joe like a rented mule in the general (or Kamala who is less popular than Joe and less charismatic than Hillary somehow), he's an active fighter in the culture wars which animated the Trump base but is tactful in it enough not to turn off the suburban woman voter. It's possible that Trump could beat Joe after Joe's historically disastrous first-term, but Desantis is a sure winner and it's not worth the risk to have someone else run. The Dems are out of their goddamn minds and shouldn't be allowed anywhere near power - in fact, we should have the McCarthy hearings 2.0 and expunge the multitude of commies (socialist and commie are synonyms) in their ranks from society.
I come from down in the valley, where mister when you're young, they bring you up to do like your daddy done
作为共和党的特朗普选民，他的总统总统感到失望。特朗普在2016年批评美国政治，并说他将“淹没沼泽”，从而获得了中等/dem的投票。不幸的是，他出售了虚假的商品。特朗普上任后，讽刺的是，他像其他人一样成为一名鸡巴的政治家。进行了一些改革，但我希望他能像他说的那样对它进行挖掘。如果我们有机会失去一些腐败，那就是他的总统职位，但是什么都没有改变，看看我们现在的位置。话虽这么说，他仍然比Dems所能提供的任何事情要领先几年。作为美国人，我通常很尴尬，由Biden和Kamala代表。他甚至无法完成自己的判决，并试图取悦所有人（自由主义者真的通过投票给他而被愚弄了……他几乎没有民主党人）。我什至不会开始卡马拉。 Trump made an ass of himself in the debates, but at least he was proud to be an American and not a total pushover.
Same. I was hoping Trump would actually withdraw from NATO and start pulling open the CIA archives and gut entire federal agencies. Now I am beyond voting. The first sign something was after he was elected but before he was inaugurated he started purging the populists from his campaign and staffed his transition team with Bush-tier neocons and Zionist cretins.
"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn
No way on earth you'd actually be naive enough to think he'd pull us from NATO lol
Anybody who knows their history will see how we are living in a lite-version of the Weimar Republic right now. The way that ends is with mustache man, but how he was elected (yes, elected) is rarely studied and considered by non-historians. To summarize a very elaborate process, his election was the result of social decadence, economic depression (the likes of which the U.S. is very unlikely to see) and anger. The Treaty of Versailles, enabled a high level of embarrassment and essentially humiliated a people that were well-educated, intelligent (different things), hard-working and more importantly, thatknew their history. Meaning they knew they were a great people. The French and the Americans made a severe mistake in attempting to pin everything on Germany, because they gave birth to their biggest nightmare. Notice how everything that has been done in modern Western history since then has been almostexclusivelyfocused around avoiding another "Hitler moment" from happening; the Marshall Plan, the Euro, the European Union, etc. the world has learned their lesson with him and will do anything and everything to avoid him and anything喜欢他再次发生。因此，为什么特朗普虽然他的内心可能真的在正确的位置，但不太可能再次取得成功。像特朗普这样的运动不是进步的。我并不是说这在政治意义上，但是从世俗的意义上讲，特朗普试图放慢自己每小时行驶200英里的火车，甚至没有设法将其放慢速度每小时190英里。也许美国需要一个可以reorient那个朝着正确的方向训练，一直保持速度和一些顺序（拜登的表现不佳，但设计是通过设计）。在肤浅之外，“我18岁，对世界更了解您的关注，例如卑鄙或不成为极端社会主义者（即美国葡萄酒“问题”），特朗普没有做错任何事and好,这s was more for the better. I think the elites or the powerful, etc. realized that Trump wasn't Hitler nor anywhere near what Hitler was like, but noticed that there was afaint smellof Hitler and decided it would be significantly better to avoid him from developing than finding out for themselves. In practice, Trump was not a threat, but his voter base is very strong and the risk of another mustache man is always there...
Whether you are right wing or left wing, it is important to recognize that at both extremes, the ideologies meet (horseshoe theory) and absolutists, whether they be Stalin, Hitler, Franco or Zedong, all end up behaving the same way: through committing genocide of one form or another. And that is bad for everyone involved.
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