技术媒体和电信（TMT）的概述 - 第2部分，共2部分

mod注意：每天我们都会发布顶部WSOforum posts of 2014. This one was originally posted on 7/14/14 and ranks #34 for the year by total silver banana count. You can see all our top ranked contenthere.

请参阅第一部分here.

We're wrapping up our discussions on technology from a Wall Street perspective. Part 1 covered internet, hardware, telecom and semiconductors… Part 2 is going to cover 5) networking, 6) software, and 7) Other Tech where we fail to touch on all the remaining topics.

5) Networking

越来越多的网络和硬件以相同的方式/方式价值。当您想到与普通人跳出来的最大球员交流时，是Cisco Systems - 130B美元的网络巨头。

As you can imagine there are a lot of mature product categories in this space and when you hear the word mature it usually means slower growth, less deals and more maintenance work and tuck-in acquisitions.

Positively, there are still some bright spots in networking and this post would not be doing the space justice without mentioning some of the hotter pieces of networking IE: Palot Alto Networks for example. So lets go ahead and break down, in simple bullets, what networking comprises of starting with CSCO since it has the vast majority of the product lines.

Switching- 本质上是固定的，模块化的和存储的，预计将来会扁平到略微上升。靠近它花费

Routing products– you're all familiar with routers both on corporate environments and in your home for internet/TV connections – similar growth expectations at IT spend flat to slightly up

服务提供商视频–cable access, connected devices, essentially as video becomes the medium of choice this space will grow. Expected to be up mid singles annually

合作– unified communications, essentially a group of more legacy networking products, expect flat to down in the future an unimportant segment

数据中心- 增长，如预期的那样，与不断增长的数据中心空间相关的任何销售相关的名称，预计在这里预计10-20％。不幸的是，他们对这里的确切含义没有很多细节

安全- 自我解释，帮助敌人远离网络，去年在2013年弄平

Wireless– another old legacy products fall into this category

你应该走什么？

With this backdrop it is clear the space does have some similarities to hardware in that a lot of the areas are mature but… there are some bright spots. The growth rates alone should point you to the bright spots Security, Data Center and video

安全(PANW):“根据IDC的说法，定义为IDC网络安全市场和Web安全市场的全球企业网络安全市场估计在2012年为100亿美元，预计到2016年将增长到134亿美元。”- 直接从Panw拉IPO备案。

数据中心(ANET):"Nearly all consumer applications today are delivered as cloud services. Enterprise applications are rapidly moving to the cloud as well, since cloud services are easier and more cost effective to deploy, scale and operate than traditional applications. Internet leaders like Amazon, eBay, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Yahoo! pioneered the development of large-scale cloud data centers in order to meet the growing demands of their users, including business customers. These U.S.-based Internet leaders increased their capital spending from $8.9 billion in 2010 to $19.4 billion in 2013, representing a 29.6% compound annual growth rate." – pulled directly fromIPO备案

视频服务（Cbobapp下载链接化管理SCO）：Keeping it simple and referring back to CSCO since there is nothing public that we would refer to for a specific sizing number (feel free to chime in if you know of a pure play here). Service provider video: 4%-6% y/y growth in the future.

Valuation:

For the networking sector you're looking at the same metrics we outlined for hardware, this is a copy paste job below but good for reference if you're interviewing for a networking slot and want to print this out. You should be more familiar with 1) P/E metrics both on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, 2)DCFfor Large Cap hardware, 3) Sum of the Parts and 4)EV/Sales for growth hardware.

P/E:这是自我解释的，但是重点是，由于公司预计公司的增长速度比销售快得多（假设我们在谈论较大的公司），该领域的收益增长要多一些。

DCF:再次专注于大型CAP技术，随着您的EPS变得更大，公司正在寻找高质量的收入。根据拇指GAAP净收入增长应开始反映FCFgrowth, so aDCFbecomes more viable at this point.

Sum of the Parts:如您所见，许多这些网络公司将不可避免地拥有多个业务系列。理想情况下，您将分别重视每个子细分市场以提出公平的估值。增长率和保证金概况将确定适当的倍数。

EV/Sales:当你没有利润,你操作一次loss… You better grow like a weed. This is whereEV/销售变得至关重要。这个想法是，如果您的公司以50％甚至100％的速度增长，您拥有主要的技术领导者，那么一家主要公司可能会害怕您并购买整个公司。

6) Software

This is going to take the bulk of part two, because similar to internet, it is the "hot space" in the Tech industry. Before jumping in it's probably a good idea to explain in laymans terms why the space is coveted. The best example we can use is a subscription based model.

Basic Software Business Model

每个人都知道Netflix和Hulu（Internet不是软件）。这些业务模型很有吸引力，因为个人 *消费者 *购买订阅或访问具有固定/固定成本基础的内容。这意味着出售商品的成本有限，因此您的毛利率更高，并且通过财务模型流动。您获得的用户越多，由于您销售的内容不会改变价格，因此您只需要扩展。

How does this relate to Software? Well to put it simplistically a successful software company has this on an **Enterprise** level. Meaning your recurring revenue is coming from companies not consumers.

使用一个简单的示例，您可以从Microsoft为您的公司购买软件……现在，该软件已重复出现年度许可 /订阅收入，而您的软件公司现在会在您的软件上注册越来越多的企业公司，从而有了很大的利润。同样，这里的毛利率很高，因为该软件是一个代码，并且您的主要开销基本上是研发（即：您雇用的人来制作新代码）

Now we can go ahead and take this a step further and explain that enterprise users for major software companies also pay for services (be it maitenence or essentially trouble shooting) but the crux of the matter is that extremely valuable software can be scaled quickly, deliver value to an enterprise immediately and give the software company a "long tail" of future revenue assuming they sign an enterprise up for a 2-3+ year agreement.

哪种类型的公司属于这个空间？

You can find hundreds of ways to splice the space "Platform as a Service" (PaaS), "Software as a Service" (SaaS), "Big Data Analytics" (BDA), "Virtualization" (Desktops/Servers), "Cloud Based Companes" (don't get us started on anything that falls under the cloud).

与其进行经历并试图准确地将所有这些公司和细分市场跌落到哪里，我们会研究大级别的趋势和列举一些触及每个空间的玩家。

Virtualization (VMW/CTXS/MSFT):

在2009 - 2010年的时间范围内，当服务器虚拟化速度升高时，这有点热。对于那些不知道虚拟化含义的人，用外行术语来说，它本质上允许服务器执行多个任务。以前，单个服务器将仅用于*一个*应用程序或任务，但是现在使用**服务器虚拟化**您可以安装软件并将物理服务器分为多个*虚拟*环境。

Moving forward, the next phase is the move to desktop virtualization. Again to put this in laymans terms what this means is your desktop will now be more secure as it is linked up to a bunch of storage/servers inside a data center. The best form of explanation is as follows:

非虚拟化情况

1) Joe has his laptop stolen
2) Joe reports the laptop stolen to his IT administrator
3) Joe has to explain all items on his desktop/accessible in order to make sure no confidential information is breached
4) Thief tries to steal information in the mean time

Virtualized Situation

1) Joe has his laptop stolen
2) Joe reports the laptop stolen to his IT administrator
3）由于台式机虚拟化和工作服务器 +存储，所有IT的工作所做的所有访问的100％并关闭了终身计算机
4）小偷什么都没得到

还有更多，但是有了服务器和桌面虚拟化的两个示例，它应该给出充分的理由来查看该值。

Business Model: Now in this space you're looking at around 10-12% long-term revenue growth, gross margins of 85%+ and operating margins in the 30% range. To avoid getting into the weeds too much, the big debates in this space are as follows: 1) what happens when all servers are virtualized and we have finally converted all physical servers to virtual servers?, 2) how much will it really cost to convert all desktops/notebooks to a virtualized environment? 3) Which company will have the best overall solution for the enterprise.

Big Data Analytics (SPLK, DATA and Pivotal a division of EMC)

This space is currently *hot* ie: many are talking about it and the valuations here are getting quite rich as people are looking for the best of breed in Big Data Analytics.

What is big Data Analytics?
简而言之，本质上是能够获取有关某个主题的大量信息并决定信息实时含义的能力……并在几秒钟内（而不是几分钟或几天）内完成此信息。从大学生的角度来看，大数据分析试图在不到3-4秒的时间内提出一份论文纸！好的，这有点极端……但这确实是这个想法。

As a real time example, lets say you *Joe Target School* walk into a local clothing store. With all the information you have given out in the past 1) your previous purchases, 2) your facebook posts, 3) your emails – which Google is free to read and 4) your history with the store…. They will immediately try to sell you the product you're looking for. Now… Take this a step further… They are looking to do this on a geographic basis as well. If you own the same clothing store in Austin Texas versus Spokane Washington, the clothing store will reorganize the entire store to match the buying preferences of the community as a whole.

Business Model: In this space you're looking at hyper growth of up to 50%+!!! In addition you're looking at gross margins of 85%+. Notably, operating margins are generally negative, IE: these companies are *losing money* because they are reinvesting in R&D to make sure they have the best analytics software and in addition are searching for ways to obtain more sales (marketing and sales expenses). Most of our tech savvy readers already know this is how high growth new software companies work, negative operating margins as you build a book of recurring revenue then you should scale appropriately and see the profits flow in at a later date.

基于云的公司（CRM，WDAY）

Now we're getting into the cross over and broad topics in software. Cloud based companies can be literally any software company that primarily functions on applications for the Cloud or "Platform Three". A company that uses internet based computing to give a service/product is going to be considered cloud. As you can see this opens up a large large large can of worms in terms of what can be considered a cloud based company. Certainly a software company that has all of its revenue derived from the cloud would count… but deciding if you include a security company as cloud is difficult (looking at you FireEye).

If you wanted to look at one company and say this is a large "cloud" based play, then a good place to start would certainly be salesforce.com (CRM). Even on a $1.2B+ quarterly revenue run rate, the company is growing at 30%+. This is a tall task for any company. The Company operates in 4 segments sales cloud, service cloud, marketing cloud, salesforce1 platform.

再次将其置于简单的术语中，将CRM的业务模型视为通过Internet访问专有软件/应用程序的访问。就那么简单。使用CRM作为领先的示例 *服务云 *将是创建和跟踪呼叫以及优先考虑重要性的能力（通过Internet媒体）， * sales Cloud *将允许跟踪和帮助关闭客户/业务线索，并再次升级为当他们接近购买时，不同的成员 *营销云 *允许客户引入外部数据并集成到其客户资料中，以帮助分析和后来在将来出售更多产品。

商业模式：想重申许多公司可以被视为云，但是如果我们要对大规模增长（如CRM）说话，您将在今年的增长〜30％+增长，而在中期则20％+（称其为3 - 5年）。该领域的毛利率概况略低于纯软件公司，但您正在寻找75％+。此外，鉴于业务模型的支持和服务较大，销售和营销费用更高，但您正在寻找10％+ OP利润率。bobapp下载链接化管理

软件as a Service

For those that work in technology investment banking… you'll know why this was listed last… It is simply because you can technically call CRM/MKTO/Netsuite/Workday and other companies mentioned within this write up as… "Software as a Service" companies.

Since we don't want to go over every single company that is considered SaaS which would take a post in itself, we would recommend this short article that simply talks about high level valuation of SaaS Companes:

http://www.scalevp.com/a-valuation-framework-for-saas-companies

Valuation:

这是软件公司的基础知识，如果您谈论的是诸如CRM之类的较大的公司，则自由现金流多重可能会与DCF。当您谈论高增长公司（请参阅亏损）时，您将被迫提高损益表，并正在考虑销售倍数。如果您不使用这四个指标中的任何一个EBITDAmetric.

软件is a huge space, we missed out on a lot here and didn't even scratch the surface (examples RHT/LOGM/LPSN etc etc.) and the fact that there are so many large companies lets you know that there will be a lot ofIPOs/将来的合并。这总是对银行家耳朵的音乐。

***Want to reiterate here, unlike Internet which can be more or less understood when looking at the business model at a glance, Software has a lot of overlaps and can be difficult to "position" particularly for a pitch or comp sheet. When push comes to shove you're going to have to understand how your banker thinks about splicing up the space and how to spin your company into the right "buzz word" areas such as cloud and big data analytics. As a quick note, a smart way to justify yourcomp/valuations is to stack up like for like growth rates and margin profiles regardless of it being a XYZ software play instead of a ZYX software play.

长篇小说短软件可以在几秒钟内具有完整的10多个打印机***

7）其他 *技术 *

Here we are going to attempt to tie in all the loose ends that could be considered technology. As an example you can use 1) manufacturing, 2) distributors and what we'll deem 3) electromagnetic devices as "Technology"

For those that work in industrials you see how we begin to blur the lines between "technology" and "industrials". As an example if a company creates the components within the technology device (think the nuts and bolts connecting everything inside a server or a laptop) is this considered "technology" or is this considered "Industrials". Without debating how to splice the group we can name a few types of industries that could be considered tech but could also fall into the lap of a few different industries person.

Main Industries that can qualify as "Tech"

媒体/游戏（CBS，GA，SINA，FOXA）：Okay… fair we should have another section on this, since it is called Technology Media and Telecom… However the issue is the space is generally fragmented (gaming) or quite consolidated (media).

从游戏中看，新贵的游戏公司很快就会被GA等较大的公司之一抢购。在这种情况下，在采访基于媒体/游戏的职位时，您应该期望在很多工作上工作1）小卖方M&Atransactions or 2) advising a large gaming company on a lot of smallM&Atransactions.

Now if your focus is more on media you're going to be referring to CBS and we would refer back to telecom based valuations for simplicity: focus in on 1) entertainment vs cable revenue growth, 2) subscriber growth 3) Contract renewals with operators such as DirectTV, Cable Vision etc., 4) capital allocation policy – dividend changes and 5) Free Cash Flow. In short, refer back to valuations for "mature technology" since the big names are unlikely to trade on sales multiples gives the growth rates.

Distributors/Value Added Resellers (VARs) – [TECD, AVT]:These companies essentially buy products, warehouse them and resell them. Lets say you're a small company and can't afford a massive sales team like the big technology companies. You reach out to distributors/VARs to help sell your product. They generally provide some technical support as well.

[Note: *technically* distributors and VARs should be slightly separate as aVAR应该在转售之前始终提供其他功能或服务，但我们只是使这更容易团结起来]bobapp下载链接化管理

Manufacturing [Hon Hai, FLEX, Catcher]:所有这些级别，计算机和手机被制作的人都必须将这些东西放在一起吗？简而言之，技术制造业的工作是找到方法来有效地抽出数十亿和数十亿的智能手机，笔记本电脑，打印机，服务器等。您在新闻中与中国工资法和所有其他相关的制造业问题相当多地看到了这一点由主溪媒体提出。

Electromagnetic Devices [GLW, TEL, BDC]:Lumping a LOT of categories in here, but think about it like this… all of the "stuff" inside. The antennas, the batteries, the sensor for your fingerprint scanner, the control that notices you have turned your iPad up and then back to the side to view a movie etc. All of this "stuff" is going to be technology in some cases. You could also call it "industrials" simply put the guts of the technology product.

Valuation:

这个空间我们真正寻找P / E和FCF。对于创建产品胆量的极大公司，您可以拥有不同业务的零件总和（因为它们指挥了不同的利润率），但是我们将避免极端细节并坚持P/ES和P/ES和FCF。

The bigger idea when thinking about valuation for these types of companies is this… They are heavily influenced by the macroeconomic climate. This makes sense. They are trying to sell anything and everything to everyone, or trying to create anything and everything. So if the macro economy suddenly improves their revenue numbers jump and if the macro were to suddenly decline, they would quickly fire all of their employees making all of these products.

财务报表动态：由于这些公司正在创建大量，因此显然需要监控库存。在这里，您可以在这里查看营运资金波动，因为对资本的适当管理将影响您的FCF。

Finally, this group of "other" tech companies are generally prone to charge offs or one time restructuring as they resize their businesses on a relatively frequent basis to adjust for the macro climate. This should be taken into account when one looks at their performance over a specific time period, IE: a full bull and bear market should give a much more reasonable idea for how the company operates (positive or negative). Can they manage a down turn? Can they take advantage of an upswing? Etc.

Concluding Remarks

At this point we're burned out with the typing. We have ~20 pages written now on Tech and ~10 pages written on如图。

The big issue? We hardly scratched the surface!

媒体应与软件，互联网以及此处提到的其他一些细分市场进行更多讨论。也就是说，这些组合的作品应为对这两个部门感兴趣的人提供足够的概述。将来我们将继续使用其他部门，但是尚未设置时间表。就目前而言，它看着医疗保健（可能与Couchy一起工作 - 这里的成员）和赞助商，甲板上什么都没有……但是

Have a great week guys getting closer to that August vacation time frame.