嘿大家 ！
I have an interview coming up at aHFso I just wanted to get some feedback on my trade idea.
假设：花很长的美元或元
到今年年底，油价上涨至每桶100桶，我们将看到石油进口商需要购买更多的美元或元人民币以购买石油，因为石油公司/元。人为地对每种货币欣赏美元/元的货币的需求更强劲。而且，您将缺乏任何国家将其货币转换为美元购买更多石油的货币，因为美元会兑现货币。
Please all feedback and questions are welcomed !
WSO Virtual BootcampsB0B体育平台下载
Total Avg Compensation
2022年2月Hedge Fund
Leaderboard查看全部
| 1 |
|
99.3 |
| 2 |
|
99.2 |
| 3 |
|
99.1 |
| 4 |
|
99.1 |
| 5 |
|
99.0 |
| 6 |
|
99.0 |
| 7 |
|
99.0 |
| 8 |
|
99.0 |
| 9 |
|
99.0 |
| 10 |
|
99.0 |
Comments (15）
Cooreyfeldman，您的线程尚未有任何回应。有时，机器人无论如何都比人类聪明：
更多建议...
手指交叉，其中之一可以帮助您。
I don't know if it helps to be multidimensional, but you might want to consider how inflation in the US compares to to other countries and also consider whether or not you expect the fed to raise rates, as inflation erodes the dollars' purchasing power while higher rates tend to increase the price of the dollar.
I say it's an interview, flex your muscles and show that you are thinking about all the variables.
有趣的论文！我很好奇，为什么不长期以来对加拿大经济对石油 +更高的CAD率如此重要的关注？
还同意，如果您想在环境中进行宏观交易，则绝对需要提及通货膨胀。
(Btw take what I say with a grain of salt, I literally got zero experience doing that)
嘿，所以我进一步完善了它，但是我与一个降低石油生产并严重依赖石油进口的国家一起去了。因此，对石油的需求是弹性的，他们更有可能以任何价格购买石油。我很确定加拿大是一个正在出口的国家，因此他们至少不会为我的论文工作。
我不确定我是否正确关注您：加拿大出口石油，因此，每当石油价格提高CAD时，对其他货币的欣赏。似乎符合您关于油价的论点 @ 100美元。
Also, you thesis is basically saying "go long USD and short any country that buys oil". It think it mst be more precise than that. Especially since most investors manage money in USD, saying go long USD doesn't mean anything. You need either to go long another currency. (Or saying what would you short against the USD)
顺便说一句，您的面试什么时候？
嘿，所以我进一步完善了它，但是我与一个降低石油生产并严重依赖石油进口的国家一起去了。因此，对石油的需求是弹性的，他们更有可能以任何价格购买石油。我很确定加拿大是一个正在出口的国家，因此他们至少不会为我的论文工作。
您正在考虑第二订单...如果您认为石油会从目前的价格（80美元）到100美元。...那么，您不应该只是原油期货吗？
isn't that less risk?
这将是低风险但我真的想impress my interviewer. And I believe this replicates that sentiment but this play could be a trade that no one would expect, and beats the market.
I agree with the above, for sure you will get asked why not just go long oil? Also what makes you so confident oil will go to 100? I think you should try to be as clear as possible about what the market is missing or misunderstanding in the current price of oil.
Because of the oil crunch in Asia and Europe + the initiative to move towards esg and disinvestment towards oil, coal + Plus a very cold winter, would hypothetically increase oil demand. I also think this is a unique trade that when put together is amazing I can send it to you
Always good to go through the process of idea generation, but I would not recommend it. Simplistically, oil prices matter less for importers than exports given as a % of GDP oil imports are typically low single digits while they can be 20% plus for exporters. Said differently there are many other (more impactful) factors that will likely drive $ or RMB (Yuan) movement.
Not to be picky, but given where gas futures a cold winter is arguably already "priced in" and there is a significant amount of incremental gas to oil switching that has already occurred. There are other reasons why I think oil could go to $100, but this is not the main one. As others have alluded to are the FX plays cheaper on a risk adjusted basis than the commodity.
Finally, just trying to offer some critique without knowing your experience level- if you are an undergrad/fresh grad that's one thing, but if you are for example an associate on a macro desk interviewing for a macroHF那不一样。作为一般规则，必须进行更基本的腿部工作才能进行交易。
Wait so why are they purchasing more oil in the first place? I thought demand and price were inversely related?
Quod dicta quia quo nam incidunt et id. Nesciunt ipsum est quod eius. Aut perspiciatis et veniam fugiat.
Qui placeat atque eius eius. Ipsum ut repellat est nulla est. Explicabo error inventore aut ullam tempore. Quos doloremque hic impedit similique voluptas.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus:6财务建模课程免费（$ 199的价值）
or想要开锁经过signing in with your social account?
预览和下载评论作为图像
您可以使用浏览器的上下文菜单下载此屏幕截图或复制到剪贴板