I'm sitting on a lot of cash right now but I'm too befuddled by what's going on in the markets to deploy any of it into risk assets. On the one hand, we have unfettered speculative mania occurring everywhere, even with valuations at all-time highs. Under normal circumstances you would think we're heading for a major correction soon, but easy中央银行policy andgovernment spendingare showing no signs of slowing down, which makes me think this bull run might still have legs. I don't want to be sitting on all this cash due to inflation risks, but I'm afraid to go near a lot of equities with valuations where they are. Two things I'm looking into areemerging marketsand domestic energy, where valuations look more reasonable, but I'm still uncertain.
What are other people's thoughts on the market, and what are you doing with your personal portfolio?
Comments (42）
国内能源(假设你不mean clean) are crippled by debt and have no demand, not to mention the fact that they'll eventually be phased out withevand sustainable fuel sources like hydrogen and biofuel. Next
的能量是如此的收获来自于大笔买进受到冷遇的梅nstream, for the reasons you described, is exactly what makes it an attractive long-term buy to me as a contrarian investor. If demand rebounds as the economy reopens, there could be a change in sentiment that pushes energy stocks higher. And I think you're massively overestimating how quickly the 'clean energyrevolution' will be here.
您是对的，在O＆G上严重缺乏机构投资（理由如此，因此许多公司通过资本燃烧而没有回报的方式）将导致真正的供应冲击，全球需求将迅速增加，供应将下降在后面，在接下来的几年中，原油价格将进行强劲的集会，而O＆G现在几乎处于周期的底部，从而导致了相当强烈的逆势公牛论文IMO。可再生能源 /能源过渡很热，现在的估值非常疯狂，因为资本市场绝对淹没了它，不确定这将在近期的未来中如何实现，从我看泡沫形成的方式来看。
Phased out when? In 30-50 years? Seems silly to assume there are no returns to be made in the meantime. Especially when prices can easily increase to the 50-60 range. Otherwise, why don't all E&P companies wind down and shut down immediately?
Yup, that's why I'm only 60-65% invested but my holdings are "risk on". Half my cash gets invested at the next 10% dip, the other half if it drops 20%. If markets keep tanking, I throw any extra cash from paychecks / bonuses to average down.
Democrats are in charge and gonna spend some big money, hopefully it keeps markets pumping
Right, why not?
只需卖出有盖的电话即可。
和覆盖的看台
Not a bad idea
I also tend to think the market is over heated atm, but there's no where else to find yield. Obviously I'm not looking at names from last week, but there's plenty of value in large cap IMO. InfiniteQEmakes cash extremely undesirable.
同意。似乎在2021年末和2022年通货膨胀似乎很可能
我认为由于人工成本上升而引起的通货膨胀是一件好事。意味着更多的人获得良好的报酬。
I am pretty bulled up on cyclicals/risk assets in the near term.
我希望沿途进行一些小的更正，这些更正会很快购买。
你说你害怕因为一些股票valuations, but there are still fundamental stocks existent in the market that are underpriced. The two that come to my mind are Callaway Golf ($ELY) and Tattooed Chef ($TTCF). Think you need to go look up those economic formulas again, because the money that the Biden stimmy will put into the经济will again end up in capital markets. If you think a crash is coming at the same time as people get access to more money then I'd simply claim that you are out of touch with reality - crashes and liquidity do not go together.
I would just take the things that are getting legalized in the U.S., the sectors that will blow up under Biden and just make plays on them. Here, let me solve it for you:
1。Legalized sports betting - DKNG and PENN;
2。Legalized/decriminalized marijuana - either MSOSETFor Trulieve/Curaleaf/CrescoLabs for U.S. exposure and Tilray/CanopyGrowth/Aurorafor Canadian exposure;
3。Green energy - ICLNETFor take your pick from subsectors - fuel cells/hydrogen like Ballard (BLDP), Bloom (BE), PlugPower (PLUG) & FuelCell (FCEL); solar like Array (ARRY), ReneSola (SOL) & SunRun (RUN); some random shit like Gevo, there's plenty of picks.
Just some ideas that I came up with on a quick note. And no, this is not financial advice.
everybody thinks that way and that's why all main clean energy stocks sky-rocketed already. how much did ICLN rise for the last year? did the fundamentals of the companies in the index grow as much?
The fundamentals went largely unchanged, but it is generally not easy to adjust fundamentals for the probability distributions of government contracts. I totally agree that everyone thinks this way - it is reflected in the market, but in my opinion, the stocks are not priced at levels where we think "This is a surefire thing". They are still priced with some likelihood of failure - DKNG and PENN have atotal market cap当体育博彩可能每月收入达到数万十亿美元时，大约有43B的市场。另外，由于它们仍然不将其视为合法业务，因此杂草股的机构所有权实际上仍处于零状态 - TCNNF拥有0.16％的机构所有权，Curlf的机构拥有0.03％，CRLBF的机构所有权为0.4％ - 如果它们从OTC到正常情况列表，没有说出他们的价格（以及相应的利润率）可能会变成什么。您是否看到过一些在佛罗里达州经营的商店？这就像一个杂草天堂，相当于糖果店里的孩子。
我认为，如果您在市场上进行长期发挥，拜登并不是最有影响力的杂草或体育博彩球员 - 各州本身就是。
我同意您100％的观点，该行业被高估了，因为许多散户投资者高估了政府政策和未来增长前景的影响。
It's also an industry that can become highly comoditized withbarriers to entrythat aren't THAT high. SEGD and ENPH aren't the next Exon and Shell.
look at SBGI. collection of regional sports networks that owns a 23% stake in Bally's (sports betting operator).
不害怕。自动化它。
Money can purchase freedom, if you have the guts to buy it
bingo. it's fine to keep some dry pow pow but I stay fully invested nearly 100% of the time, have less stress than my peers and have pretty good returns (not like RenTech pre 2020, but better than SPY)
pagingDickFuldI know you've got a thing or two to say on this
I'm a little late to this, I see. As always, I'm all in on equities. These people trying to dick around on whether they should invest or not are generally missing the forest for the trees. Most people on this site and have time on their side. Invest now and invest every time you can. Always. Thank me in 30 years.
If you're nervous, diversify. The less you diversify, the less you have to lose and gain.
"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee
I'm in the same boat. I sell far-dated covered puts at attractive prices (far OTM) on stocks/ETFsI want拥有。如果他们不掉落，我将收集溢价。如果他们掉下来，我会买蘸酱。
Put it into crypto.
我大约3%的净值在BTCen accumulated over the last year. Admittedly I know almost nothing about crypto so I'm purely speculating. But I'm skeptical that the recent price run up is just a repeat of the 2017 bubble and that I'll be able to buy it much cheaper in a few months to a year.
Nice! I probably have a lowernet worththan you (only an intern) but have a significantly higher percentage in BTC. Crypto is here to stay.
Don't scare! King Biden will give a free stimulus check every quarter this year!
I love Biden!!!
。
I worked in cleantech equity research a couple years ago.
personally I think renewable energy is way overestimated. All the dollars & euros & yuans will get burned before investors realize they are investing into something that has a 30-year horizon.
this
long MO
buy now and hold forever
如果您仅在市场峰值上进行投资怎么办？（awealthofcommonsense.com）
doesnt matter if its at a short term peak, assuming you are between 20-40 buying equities for the long term is the right move. I also strongly doubt your ability to call the top and bottom.
I really like Ben Carlson, this is a great blog that most people should follow
只需找到一个您感到舒适的多元化投资组合（即60％的股票，30％bonds, 10% real estate, or whatever) and then invest in it on a periodic basis such as every month or something.
您会在上升的途中抓到一些，但是从长远来看，您会有更多的钱。尝试为市场计时时，尤其是在更长的时间范围内没有意义。
Dat商品超级杜松子酒...
No because there are still many assets in the market that are under priced. You just have to know where to look. Just in the past few weeks I bought two names, one popped 50 percent and the other popped 30%. Not in sense that they are overvalued but the market is starting to appreciate their potential
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