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With all this drama about the commodity crisis and the future projections of shortages, I'm getting more interested in learning more than just the basics of commodity trading rather than M&A orER。Feels like the minimal amount we learn in business school and internships doesn't give a good picture of the opportunities in this field. For some weird reason, it seems much more exciting to trade oil, metals and all that rather than just pieces of paper to be fair
So anyone has a good take on the future of this industry?
Comments (15)
Commodity trading be great given you are at the right place. Heard that specifically in Geneva at bunge and cargill things are quite great, high pay & smart ppl.
Good rule of thumb, this stuff comes in cycles. When things seem like they have a bright future and everyone is hiring then you should be scared as a new grad. Similarly just a few years ago nobody was hiring and it was all doom and gloom. That all said if you are interested in it why the heck wouldn't you pursue it
不可能预测长期的地平线上。In 2019, everyone thought that volatility was dead because of US production response. In 2020, everyone thought that peak oil demand was in the past, and oil majors as well as institutionalinvestors embraced ESG。In 2021, people thought that a new super cycle was in store for energy because US and OPEC were slow to respond. In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine (also something no one saw coming) and ESG has dropped off the radar. Who knows what's next? I would certainly not put much stock in decade long assessments.
I been in space since 2006 and people told me I was dumb then.... then I was smart then dumb again then smart again..
选择一个职业，因为您不会兴趣，因为您认为您会很酷几年...
I agree with what others have said. You have to pick something because it genuinely interests you. Having said that, I always enjoyed commodities because of how tangible it is and the fact that commodities are what drives the world. Commodities are what feed us, provide energy that has allowed modern society to become what it is, and provide materials to allow us to build all of the infrastructure we have. If prostitutes are the world's oldest profession then grain traders are second. An interesting book just came out and you might enjoy it if you want to read more about the impact that commodities have on geopolitics, world history, empires, etc.
斯科特·雷诺兹·尼尔森（Scott Reynolds Nelson）的“谷物海洋”
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了解更多Second'd everything said.
同意您同意他人的同意
Exactly. I'd put copper in there with grains in terms of oldest professions.
重点是，有时候市场会像现在和几年前一样吮吸的时代像现在一样高，但这是一个绝对令人着迷的职业，很可能总是以某种形式或另一种形式存在。
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Lots of commodities guys like to talk commodities up when really we all knowIBis better (as long as you are an actual finance type guy and not some work life balance freak) stay inIBdont go into commodities - this is coming from a guy who has spent time at a physical shop + ahedge fund+ bulge bracket - message me if interested
这里有很多好主意，但是仍然需要提及一件大事。如果你在寻找at a front officerole in commodities and focusing on the actual commodity instead of companies involved in the space, its moremacroeconomics than finance。埃克森美孚为石油赚钱是否相对非物质，重要的是，他们在明年，五年等中期望生产多少，等等。对于矿工，电力生产商等也可以说。
如果您更喜欢经济学班而不是金融课，那么它可能适合您。
Good point. It really isjust applied economics。Where is the marginal supplier/demand base and what price are they willing to sell/buy?
我会说它甚至都不是宏，肯定会有所帮助并普遍兴趣。Its just econ101，供应=需求。
I took them saying macro to mean supply and demand fundamentals but that could just be me being generous with the definition. Although macro can impact trade flows considering forex.
Right correct, I see after reading the full message stream now.
Yah I would say micro is supply/demand of an industry. Macro to your point, is trade flows, interest rates, is-lm, gdp so on.
顺便说一句，如果有人想知道Trafigura网站对基本logistics and economicstoo.
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