如何发展“二级思维”

Hello everyone I'm an AN1 in纽约和currently in M&A. I know it's early but I want to go into equity L/S and hopefully into amerger arbitragestrat. Basically the title says it all, i want to know how do I go beyond reading news articles and actuallly developing a market view. Most of the time when I readstuff on BloombergFTI just read them and forget the content unless it really stuck with me.

提前致谢!

Comments (3)

  • Analyst 1inIB-M&A
8mo

我简要提到我的背景的原因是因为与第一年的S&T相比,我们显然被视为Braindead统治追随者(我很夸张,但其中一些HFguys I've talked to say that they and their bosses think that way). I can see why they say that and I admit I'm pretty weak in building a "mosaic" that develops into a market view based on what I've read via news articles and industry reports.

  • 1
最有帮助的
8mo
wsoforwarder, 你怎么看?以下评论:

我的经验并不像S&T的家伙一定要教导如何做到这一点,只有银行根据他们的兴趣和能力对这种类型的分析进行选择,然后他们每天都可以练习(而不是在PowerPoint中解决错字)。因此,如果您想更好地练习更多 - 例如对于宏观,在您/您感兴趣的新闻中读了一两个问题,您/您已经阅读了很多关于大小的人,例如消费者通货膨胀,钢铁价格或农村房地产,并花30分钟写下您认为在某些时间范围内会发生的事情。保持相当短的时间,例如每个句子上的5-6个句子。不必是完美的,您不必充分证明一切合理,而是要确保您知道自己没有合理的理由。您正在尝试弄清楚哪些最重要的已知和未知数推动了这一过程:

random example: city real estate prices - I know nothing about this just to show you what I mean:

  • Assuming gas prices continue to remain high or rise (you might have read about this), driving a car will become more expensive. This will hit lower income rural workers who rely on cars to get to work the worst.
  • 此外,由于供应链问题 /通货膨胀压力,农村地区的生活成本增加了,农村工资比城市的工资要慢。
  • Combining these two together, I'd expect a large demand side pressure on major city real estate in the next few years as these workers (more numerous than the WFH white collar jobs) are forced to look for better paying jobs or jobs which do not require a car commute.
  • Construction work has been so disrupted by covid they will not fully recover for a few years, adding supply side upwards pressure on prices.
  • Hence I believe housing prices in major cities will continue to rise.

关键是您正在写下预测和一些理由。每隔几周 /有一个新的想法,并且a)您会更好地做出预测b)当您阅读新闻时,您将在以前的预测的背景下合成它。这个故事是否证实您的预测?如果XYZ银行的房地产负责人说与您预期的相反,您应该弄清楚原因。

  • 4
  • Analyst 1inIB-M&A
8mo

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